Bosnia: Serbia threatens to break away

Possibly the last attempt to guide Bosnia with the aid of an international special representative from a system based on ethnic proportionality to a democracy by EU standards has recently caused renewed tension and fear of the country’s disintegration.

Serbia defends Sprska federate state

Background: To put an end to the war in Bosnia from 1992 to 1995, the Dayton Peace Agreement in 1995 created Bosnia and Herzegovina not as a united democratic state but as one based on ethnic proportionality of the three main ethnic groups, namely Bosnians (Muslims), Serbs and Croats. The Bosnians and Croats formed a federation together. The Serbs were awarded their own federate state, Sprska. Neither have been able to achieve political or economic independence.

Richard Holbrooke, the architect of the Dayton Agreement, who is now the special representative of the new US administration in Afghanistan/Pakistan, admits today that it was a great mistake to grant the Serbs their own federate state. Since then an unresolved dilemma has existed, threatening peace and stability even further in Bosnia and the Balkans: whether to continue to tolerate the ethnic proportionality system and support for this quasi-state with external funding, creating an abiding obstacle to the European integration of Bosnia in the EU and NATO; or to make EU integration and future aid contingent on the degree of democratisation of the multiethnic state so as to stabilise Bosnia and the Balkans. This conflict has recently escalated dramatically, triggered by the dispute over what could possibly be the last Bosnian special representative. The story so far:

22 October 2008: Richard Holbrooke and Paddy Ashdown (2002-06 successor to Wolfgang Petritsch as Bosnia Special Representative) warned in an article in the UK newspaper The Guardian entitled “The Bosnian powder keg” of a “collapse of Bosnia” if the USA and the EU did not act together quickly. Bosnian Serb Prime Minister Milorad Dodik was pushing towards the secession and disintegration of Bosnia. In response, the EU recently promised to step up its commitment and to develop “efficient and functional state structures” in Bosnia. “All available instruments” would be “considered”.




5 December 2008: Gloomy report by the Slovak Special Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina Miroslav Lajčák: no progress in Bosnia, with “nationalistic programmes” continuing to obstruct Bosnia’s integration in the EU and NATO.

23 December 2008: The three leading parties of the Bosnians, Serbs and Croats agreed to start discussions on constitutional reform with a view to creating a functioning united state based on the European Convention on Human Rights.

8 January 2009: Milorad Dodik insisted that the constitutional reform should not compromise the Dayton Agreement. Sprska should remain “indestructible and independent” and was more important for the Bosnian Serbs than EU membership.

26 January 2009: Miroslav Lajčák resigned as Bosnian Special Representative and was sworn in as the new Slovak Foreign Minister in Bratislava. Lajčák, 46, had been the Special Representative in Sarajevo since 1 July 2007.

27 January 2009: Wolfgang Petritsch and Christophe Solioz, Secretary General of the Center for European Integration Strategies (CEIS) in Geneva, appealed in Oslobođenje (Liberation) in Sarajevo for a new definition of the partnership with the EU that would help Bosnia to resolve the crisis before it got any worse. The new strategy called for more partnership, less bureaucracy, full democracy and a credible EU perspective. Obstructive nationalist forces in Bosnia must be clearly told to put an end to their “funny games”.

12 February 2009: The Helsinki Committee for Human Rights claimed that the human rights situation in Bosnia was “alarmingly” poor and that parts of the constitution were also discriminatory.




19 February 2009: Milorad Dodik again called for separatist action by the Bosnian Serbs, saying that Srpska was stable and could exist on its own and implement all of the norms of modern Europe. Bosnia and Herzegovina had a future only as a loose union of federal entities.

22 February 2009: Dodik called off discussion on a new constitution for Bosnia, which was proposing to divide the country into four territorial entities instead of the two existing ethnic entities (Republika Srspka and the Federation) and the independent Brcko District. Dodik said that Srpska remained untouchable and the new constitution should also contain the right to secede from Bosnia. Accusations that the different ethnic groups wanted to destroy Bosnia escalated. In the Austrian newspaper Der Standard Milorad Dodik described a gloomy vision for Bosnia, saying that it had been created by the Dayton Agreement without internal legitimacy and sovereignty. For Bosnian Serbs the Federation was another country. The time had gone when international special representatives had the last word. They had conducted themselves like foreign maharajahs and behaved like bulls in a china shop. The spirit of Dayton had now also escaped and would be difficult to recapture. There was an increased danger that Bosnia would disintegrate as a state.



23 February 2009: The EU foreign ministers agreed in Brussels to the appointment of Valentin Inzko, a top Austrian diplomat and former ambassador in Sarajevo, currently head of mission in Ljubljana and eastern Europe expert, as new Special Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina. This led to a dispute with the USA. Media in Sarajevo wrote later that the USA would support Inzko only if he took a hard line in Bosnia and insisted on constitutional reform. The EU was calling for a more restrained position, leaving the Bosnians to govern and take responsibility for themselves. The USA and the EU were in agreement that this would be the last special representative for Bosnia.

28 February 2009: Milorad Dodik called for the division of Bosnia and Herzegovina on the Czechoslovakian model. The country should be divided into a federation of entities in which each entity had the right to self-determination and secession.

23 March 2009: EU, USA and NATO announced that the identity of the next and possible last special representative would be determined by this date.