EU study: Eastern Europe threatened with serious economic development setbacks

The massive brain drain, inadequate investment in education, a dwindling population and the absence of investments threaten the prospects for the currently booming economies of the new EU Member States in Eastern Europe in the decades to come. Turkey could be the economic anchor in the storm.

Study authors: Eastern European boom region as biggest loser in the future

The new study, entitled "European Human Capital Index", was published by the Lisbon Council, a prominent EU think tank in Brussels. The authors warn that the economic recovery of the new EU countries is in danger. Although the gap has narrowed in the last 15 years, it threatens to widen again considerably with the result that it will take decades for the countries of Central and Eastern Europe to catch up with he West, if indeed they manage to do so at all.

Bleak picture as a result of emigration, population decline and inadequate education possibilities

The main problems according to the study are the dwindling population, the brain drain, chronically high unemployment and inadequate investment in education, training and research. Moreover, no investments are being made in the over-45 generation. Eastern Europe currently has very low birth rates, which combined with the continuous emigration of skilled workers presents a very bleak picture, according to Peer Ederer, one of the authors of the study.

Recommendations: further education, research, development and job initiatives

The authors recommend to the EU Member States in Eastern Europe not to rely on low labour costs but to invest massively in education, research and development and in the latest communications technologies so as to keep up with Western Europe and Asia. Ederer stresses that the new Member States must create conditions to prevent the exodus of well qualified persons. Unemployment needs to be markedly reduced, part-time jobs created and early retirement systems curtailed. The new EU Member States must also adapt to the possibility of raising the retirement age to 70.

Solution to the dilemma: closer economic ties with Turkey

The authors of the study believe that closer economic ties with Turkey are essential. That country's population alone could compensate for the low birth rates in the new Member States and alleviate the manpower shortages. While the number of workers in Turkey is set to rise by around 37 per cent by 2035, there is likely to be a drop of more than 16 per cent on average in Eastern Europe. Although Turkey lags even behind the Eastern European countries in terms of education, making it impossible at present for large numbers of skilled Turkish workers to find jobs in Eastern Europe, the latter should encourage well qualified Turks to work in their countries. By 2050 one in five workers in Europe could come from Turkey, claim the study authors.

Criticism: controversial recommendation regarding Turkey's membership of the EU

Critics of the conclusions of this latest study by the Lisbon Council say that it is biased because of its wholehearted support of EU membership for Turkey. The Lisbon Council refutes this criticism, saying that it is merely calling for greater integration of Turkey in Europe without specifying how this should take place.

 

Links

Lisbon Council Study EUobserver Financial Times Deutschland (in German)